15 February, 2006

Canada: Barley outlook by AAFC as of February 14

For 2005-06, exports are forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to increase by 34%, driven mainly by higher exports of feed barley. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 11%, but will be high historically, AAFC posted on February 14 in its Grains And Oilseeds Outlook.

For 2006-07, production is forecast to rise slightly, as lower yields are more than offset by larger area but total supply is projected to rise only marginally due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to fall, as higher exports of malting barley only partially offset lower exports of feed barley. Carry-out stocks are projected to drop significantly due to higher feed use.

The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to rise by C$15/t. CWB pool returns are forecast by AAFC to be similar to 2005-06 for Two-Row but decline for Six-Row designated barley.

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